Alabama football’s chances at securing a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) hinged on a delicate set of circumstances. The Crimson Tide entered championship weekend knowing that they needed some help to make it to the four-team field. However, the worst-case scenario unfolded, and Alabama now finds itself in a precarious position.
Coming into the final stretch of the season, Alabama had an uphill battle. After a loss to Texas early in the season, the Crimson Tide were left with little room for error. Even though they had bounced back with a strong run in the SEC, including a dominant victory over rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl, they knew their CFP hopes were still fragile. They needed to win the SEC Championship against Georgia and hope for several other results to go their way.
Alabama’s path to the playoff was clear but narrow. First, they needed to defeat Georgia, a formidable opponent with a playoff-worthy resume. Alabama’s defense, led by head coach Nick Saban, delivered a strong performance against Georgia’s high-powered offense, and their quarterback, Jalen Milroe, was poised to lead the Tide to victory. If Alabama managed to win the SEC Championship, they would solidify their place in the playoff, as winning a major conference like the SEC typically guarantees a spot in the CFP.
However, even if Alabama won, their path was not entirely in their control. The committee would have to decide whether they were one of the four best teams in the country. The Crimson Tide also needed other results to break in their favor. Specifically, they were hoping for losses from teams like Florida State, Washington, and Oregon. If any of those teams slipped up, Alabama’s resume could vault them into the playoff picture.
Unfortunately for Alabama, the worst-case scenario began to unfold. Florida State, despite the injury to their starting quarterback, continued to win, securing an undefeated season and a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Washington also handled its business, claiming the Pac-12 title in an impressive fashion. Oregon, after a heartbreaking loss to Washington earlier in the season, was looking to redeem itself in a matchup against a tough opponent in the Pac-12 Championship.
With these teams winning, Alabama’s hopes of sneaking into the top four began to slip further away. Even if the Crimson Tide defeated Georgia, the CFP committee would likely prioritize the undefeated Florida State team over a one-loss Alabama squad. Moreover, the dominance of Washington and Oregon made it harder for the committee to justify selecting Alabama over those two teams, especially with the committee having placed strong emphasis on conference championships in the past.
Alabama had a chance to control its destiny, but by leaving too much up to chance, it finds itself on the outside looking in. The Tide may not be finished yet, but after an uncertain championship weekend, their path to the playoff has grown increasingly uncertain. What was once a season filled with potential now stands as a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in the race for the College Football Playoff.
